WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:15.419 We have got an hour together. We're going to try and move quickly and make the most of this time as an opportunity just to get our heads around what is happening in the Ukraine and in Russia and in all of the different kinds of dynamics there. 00:00:15.419 --> 00:00:31.219 Obviously, as Christians and as a church at Church of the Advent, we want to be thoughtful and engaged in what's happening around the world and trying to think through how do we engage with these kinds of challenging issues as citizens and also as Christians. 00:00:32.000 --> 00:00:36.759 And sometimes those things overlap and sometimes they don't always seem to. 00:00:36.759 --> 00:00:48.939 And one of the things that we're conscious of is that we have a huge amount of expertise at Church of the Advent around all kinds of things that involve the country and the world in different kinds of ways. 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:52.339 And we want to really be able to tap into that. 00:00:52.420 --> 00:01:01.659 And that's really the aim of tonight is to be able to tap into some of the expertise that we have here at Church of the Advent. 00:01:01.659 --> 00:01:18.780 If you are like me in times like this where you're taking in huge amounts of content and news and trying to stay up on rapidly evolving situations, you sometimes wish that you could sit down with somebody who's knowledgeable about these kinds of things and just have a conversation. 00:01:18.780 --> 00:01:31.420 Right. And just ask questions. And that's really what we want to do tonight is to pull in some experts on these kinds of matters with Russia and the Ukraine and just be able to have ask questions and have an informal time of conversation together here. 00:01:31.420 --> 00:01:40.879 Over the next hour or so. So we're really glad to have Walter Meade here with us to talk about some of these matters with us. 00:01:41.659 --> 00:01:48.560 Many of us know Walter simply as a fellow member at Advent and as a friend and mentor to many. 00:01:48.560 --> 00:02:01.960 But Walter also has this small side gig as a foreign affairs specialist and as a columnist for the Wall Street Journal and as a professor at Bard College and as a fellow at the Hudson Institute. 00:02:01.959 --> 00:02:21.199 And so we're really grateful for Walter sharing his expertise and insight with us and also really glad to have other experts, folks with insight and expertise from Advent who will act as a kind of panel to respond to some of what Walter is bringing to us to ask some additional questions. 00:02:21.199 --> 00:02:26.699 And we're also grateful in our broader community to have some folks on the call tonight from Ukraine. 00:02:27.280 --> 00:02:37.759 And that's a real privilege. And hopefully during the broader Q&A time, they may have some insights or perspectives to bring in a real time kind of way for all of us here as well. 00:02:37.759 --> 00:02:51.139 So what we're going to do here, moving quickly over the next 50 minutes or so, I'm just going to spend a few minutes interviewing Walter just to draw out some of his particular insights and to tee up a conversation for the rest of us. 00:02:51.259 --> 00:02:58.879 And then we'll pull in some of the panelists from Advent, let Walter respond to those briefly, and then we'll just open it up for Q&A. 00:02:58.879 --> 00:03:17.500 So do be thinking of your questions or observations that you want to make throughout the call. Feel free to make use of the chat box as we're going. If you want to make a comment or ask a question, we can kind of register it there and then loop back to that as we have time during the Q&A at the end. 00:03:17.500 --> 00:03:27.079 So do feel free to use the chat box for that. So having said that, Walter, thank you so much for spending this time with us. 00:03:27.080 --> 00:03:48.640 Let me just start. I know that you wouldn't call yourself a Ukraine or Russia expert, but it is an area that you know some things about. You've spent some time there. Can you just give us a little bit of background in the ways that you've engaged with those countries, that part of the world, these issues over the last number of years in your career? 00:03:48.639 --> 00:04:03.859 Sure. Well, I, you know, the first time I went to Russia, it was still the Soviet Union back in the 1980s. And I'll not forget one day I was talking to an official in the Kremlin, Victor Fallon. 00:04:03.860 --> 00:04:16.660 And he says to me, you Americans just don't, don't understand Stalin. I think he saw the shocked look on my face. And he said, no, no, no, don't get me wrong. He said, I knew Stalin. He was a terrible person. 00:04:16.660 --> 00:04:40.760 So, you know, it's kind of so I say that I knew the Soviet Union back when it was still Soviet. Then in 1990, I actually drove across Ukraine. I was Harper's Magazine sent me to Europe for six months to look at how it was changing as the Berlin Wall had come down and so on. 00:04:40.759 --> 00:04:58.500 And I decided I would drive around the Black Sea. And while the Soviets wouldn't let me go to Odessa, they actually let me travel pretty freely through the rest of the country. And I've seen quite a bit of Ukraine then. And I've been back several times, mostly to Kiev, most recently about four years ago. 00:04:58.500 --> 00:05:18.120 To Russia, been, again, many times, I've been, I was banned from Russia about four years ago. And the college I teach at Bard College, which had operated a program with the Smolny Institute at the University of St. Petersburg for many years with great success. 00:05:18.120 --> 00:05:29.040 It's actually, it's criminal now for a citizen of the Russian Federation to collaborate with Bard College or any of its work. So I'm sort of double banned in Russia. 00:05:32.319 --> 00:05:41.259 And I, you know, I've been, been a bit in Siberia. So I've seen a good bit of the country. Yeah, that's very far from being an expert, though. 00:05:41.259 --> 00:05:54.819 Yeah, of course. Well, I'd be curious to know, from where you're sitting, with engaging with this part of the world, but also against the larger backdrop of your understanding of analysis of affairs. 00:05:55.620 --> 00:06:09.079 From where you're sitting, there's so much information that's already being generated. There's a lot of unknowns. It's obviously happening quickly. Lots of, a lot is, a lot is changing quickly on the ground. 00:06:09.079 --> 00:06:21.699 From your perspective, what are the key things that we should be paying attention to right now? Of all the information that's out there, what to you stands out as what we should be especially looking at? 00:06:21.979 --> 00:06:28.899 Right. Well, I think the big thing is, you know, quite simply, the progress of the war. 00:06:28.899 --> 00:06:43.539 It, you know, is, will Putin succeed, will his forces succeed, basically in occupying and holding large chunks of Ukraine, if not the whole country? 00:06:43.540 --> 00:07:00.980 At what cost? Will he, and I think this is, in some ways, the question we're at now, is his original plan for conquest, the decapitation of the Ukrainian government, so to speak, installing a puppet regime with a lightning strike in Kiev and so on. 00:07:00.980 --> 00:07:03.420 Because this is obviously, this is obviously out of reach. 00:07:04.240 --> 00:07:06.480 What, where does he go next? 00:07:06.819 --> 00:07:06.980 Yeah. 00:07:07.400 --> 00:07:11.480 And I'm afraid the logic seems to give him two choices. 00:07:11.740 --> 00:07:22.020 One would be to move toward true Stalinist repression, both in Russia and in Ukraine, to force obedience so far as he can. 00:07:22.019 --> 00:07:29.019 And the other would be some kind of negotiated, somewhat humiliating surrender. 00:07:30.060 --> 00:07:34.879 And there is also then the possibility of some kind of internal coup in Russia. 00:07:35.500 --> 00:07:40.919 So will he make the choice for massive repression? 00:07:40.920 --> 00:07:45.060 And if he does, will he have the means to do it? 00:07:45.180 --> 00:07:57.259 Will he actually, you know, if he gives orders to arrest tens of thousands of people in Russia or to fire into crowds of protesters in Ukraine, will people follow those orders? 00:07:57.259 --> 00:08:14.939 And do, what is your sense of where the larger Russian populace is at this time, in terms of how much time will they give him if the sanctions begin to have their effects so that it's affecting the middle and the lower classes? 00:08:14.939 --> 00:08:23.379 If different kinds of news reports begin to filter in, do you think, how much time do you think he has with the Russian people? 00:08:23.379 --> 00:08:40.299 I think we may be overestimating his domestic political vulnerabilities in the sense that, you know, the Russian people have been living through a time of gradually increasing repression and intimidation. 00:08:40.299 --> 00:08:56.139 And it is, you know, it is not, many of them buy, if they don't buy the whole narrative that Putin has constructed about an evil NATO constantly scheming against Russia and so on, they buy large parts of it. 00:08:56.139 --> 00:09:03.899 And there has been a real atomization of the opposition. 00:09:05.699 --> 00:09:11.639 The last remnants of a free press have closed down. 00:09:11.639 --> 00:09:27.819 Interesting, somebody was pointing out today that with the credit card companies no longer operating in Russia, it means that Russian citizens won't be able to pay for the VPNs that allow them to break the firewall. 00:09:27.820 --> 00:09:34.020 So, and, you know, and Russia is fundamentally not a democracy. 00:09:35.540 --> 00:09:43.879 People don't, like, look at what the unemployment rate is or their rise or fall of real wages and then cast their vote at the next election. 00:09:44.980 --> 00:09:54.140 And if Putin, so, again, it's how effective, it's not, will Putin ride a huge surge of Russian support? 00:09:54.139 --> 00:09:56.039 And he may, he may get some support. 00:09:56.139 --> 00:09:58.500 I see that the patriarch of Moscow is back, man. 00:10:00.799 --> 00:10:13.600 He, he just needs to avoid the opposition coalescing in such a way as to cause either a street revolution or a palace coup. 00:10:13.779 --> 00:10:14.439 Yeah, yeah. 00:10:14.699 --> 00:10:19.980 But hopes for some sort of broad populist uprising are ill-founded, you think? 00:10:20.299 --> 00:10:23.399 I think we have not yet seen them happening. 00:10:23.399 --> 00:10:33.439 And I would, I would guess that if it happens, it's unlikely to happen in a timeframe that would affect the outcome of hostilities in Ukraine. 00:10:33.860 --> 00:10:33.980 Yeah. 00:10:34.079 --> 00:10:35.799 That is one way or another. 00:10:36.319 --> 00:10:44.399 He will have either conquered Ukraine or failed to conquer Ukraine before we would see an uprising in Russia. 00:10:44.399 --> 00:10:45.000 Yeah. 00:10:45.659 --> 00:10:53.919 And do you see, in terms of, at least in the first two weeks, things aren't going as well as it would appear that Putin was assuming it would. 00:10:54.439 --> 00:11:05.039 Do you see, if that were to continue to be the case, any kind of face-saving off-ramp for Putin that he would potentially consider? 00:11:05.039 --> 00:11:09.779 So far, he's shown no interest in any off-ramps. 00:11:10.860 --> 00:11:15.319 He's essentially repeating the same demands he's made from the beginning. 00:11:15.320 --> 00:11:19.760 And in some ways, he's actually increased his demands or his threats. 00:11:20.160 --> 00:11:26.220 He said that Ukrainian resistance endangers the future of the Ukrainian state. 00:11:26.680 --> 00:11:37.340 I think in the beginning, his idea was to sort of turn Ukraine into a kind of a Belarus, where the leader remains in power because he has Putin's support. 00:11:37.340 --> 00:11:47.720 But he now, you know, he's at least threatened raising the possibility of, in some ways, integrating Ukraine into something more formal. 00:11:49.019 --> 00:11:51.340 So, you know, anything is possible. 00:11:52.480 --> 00:11:58.019 But it would be very, very difficult for Putin to accept a compromise. 00:11:58.019 --> 00:12:27.960 Thinking about the U.S. response and the Western European response, it's a delicate dance to, on the one hand, respond forcefully, and yet recognizing that even if Russia is not the superpower that it once was, if it's kind of a petro power of some sort, that it is a massive disruptor and a nuclear armed one. 00:12:28.019 --> 00:12:44.819 And from a U.S. perspective, how do we do that dance of appropriately calibrated responses that don't potentially provoke some kind of nuclear reaction on the part of Russia? 00:12:45.840 --> 00:12:52.000 Well, I think so far we've done a really excellent job of telling him he has very little to worry about from us militarily. 00:12:52.000 --> 00:12:58.840 So that we have basically said, we are deterred from a no-fly zone. 00:12:59.820 --> 00:13:07.159 And we've also said, and by the way, we're really not interested in sanctioning your energy production. 00:13:07.159 --> 00:13:25.159 So we've been, I think, probably been too hasty in such a way that, if anything, the signal may come in Russia that we're giving off a vibration of fear, even as we tell ourselves we're being very resolute and statesmanlike. 00:13:25.159 --> 00:13:35.459 Not that I'm necessarily recommending either of those courses, but I generally speaking think it's a mistake to take option. 00:13:35.819 --> 00:13:38.959 You want your enemy to be, and at this point he is our enemy. 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:48.279 We want him to be worrying about what we might do to him rather than worrying about what he might do to us. 00:13:48.279 --> 00:14:02.439 It would appear from Congress and from other voices, there is certainly some appetite for cutting off energy supplies. 00:14:02.839 --> 00:14:07.139 Whether or not the White House ends up going in that direction is an open question. 00:14:08.120 --> 00:14:12.939 There's some debate over no-fly zones in terms of what that effectively does. 00:14:12.940 --> 00:14:19.580 Do you have opinions about that in terms of what that potentially provokes? 00:14:19.700 --> 00:14:25.380 Or is your point simply that rhetorically, strategically, diplomatically, we shouldn't be taking that off the table? 00:14:26.440 --> 00:14:28.020 I don't think we should take it off the table. 00:14:29.320 --> 00:14:34.540 I also think it really doesn't matter whether the U.S. bans imports of Russian oil. 00:14:34.640 --> 00:14:36.140 We don't use that much. 00:14:36.700 --> 00:14:41.120 Really, the question is whether Europe is going to include sanctions on oil and gas. 00:14:41.120 --> 00:14:44.480 And here I think the problem is they're not. 00:14:44.779 --> 00:14:57.560 I mean, you know, there's, and it's not, I would say, you know, given the dependence in Europe on Russian oil and gas, 00:14:58.379 --> 00:15:04.480 and the inability to really substitute quickly here, it's almost economic suicide. 00:15:05.460 --> 00:15:09.159 And so, you know, they're certainly quite reluctant to do it. 00:15:09.159 --> 00:15:12.719 It puts their economies on a real war footing. 00:15:13.500 --> 00:15:20.659 And I think, again, from Putin's point of view, this just vindicates his original view of how weak the West is. 00:15:21.819 --> 00:15:26.439 You know, some of the other sanctions, I think, particularly on the central bank, have been more surprising. 00:15:26.440 --> 00:15:33.520 And certainly Ukrainian military resistance has been far greater than what he would have expected. 00:15:33.860 --> 00:15:36.340 And his own military performance has been worse. 00:15:36.340 --> 00:15:47.000 But I am not sure that he is as impressed with our, with what we keep telling ourselves is our gloriously successful. 00:15:47.780 --> 00:15:54.080 I mean, if you can imagine, you know, the Munich conference in 1938, if all the allies ended saying, 00:15:54.080 --> 00:16:00.920 boy, we really displayed great unity at Munich and Hitler still gets Sudetenland. 00:16:02.500 --> 00:16:11.360 You know, we, there, there's a danger that we're awarding ourselves participation trophies without looking at the reality that, 00:16:11.480 --> 00:16:16.280 that on the ground, he may end up getting all or most of what he, he wanted. 00:16:16.279 --> 00:16:16.959 Yeah. 00:16:19.179 --> 00:16:31.500 Let me pull the lens back a little bit further out in terms of what these new realities signal for U.S. foreign policy more generally. 00:16:31.500 --> 00:16:41.500 So if we've moved from what was a kind of bipolar world during the Cold War to a kind of post-1991 unipolar world with the dominance of the U.S., 00:16:42.639 --> 00:16:58.080 does this suggest we are moving towards a kind of multipolar world in regards to Russia and China and Iran and the Middle East and a whole range of different actors 00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:07.840 that suggest we have to rethink our approach to foreign policy again in this, you know, if we are, in fact, in a kind of post-Wilsonian world, 00:17:08.740 --> 00:17:12.920 where, where are we and where do you think we need to go in light of all of this? 00:17:13.579 --> 00:17:23.279 Well, I wrote a piece for Foreign Affairs back in 1914, 1915, 2014, 2015, that was called The Return of Geopolitics. 00:17:23.279 --> 00:17:34.579 And I basically said in that piece, following the Crimea business, I believe that the fantasy that we had, that history was over. 00:17:34.779 --> 00:17:44.500 And from now on, it was just about building and deepening the beautiful liberal world order was mistaken, that the world had entered a new era. 00:17:44.500 --> 00:17:51.700 I actually would say that we've moved from a pre-war era to a post-war era in about 2014. 00:17:53.359 --> 00:17:56.759 And sorry, post-war to pre-war, right? 00:17:58.059 --> 00:18:05.920 And that in a post-war era, international politics is mostly about resolving the leftover problems from the last war. 00:18:05.920 --> 00:18:16.500 In a pre-war era, the internet, international politics is about dealing with problems that if they aren't solved, will lead to a, could lead to a new war. 00:18:17.080 --> 00:18:20.680 And that, I think, is where, is clearly where we are. 00:18:20.820 --> 00:18:24.840 And it's, it's not where most Americans thought we are. 00:18:24.960 --> 00:18:28.519 It's not where they expect it to end up, but it is where we are. 00:18:30.019 --> 00:18:32.120 Yeah, it's good. 00:18:32.119 --> 00:18:41.739 Let me pull the lens back a little bit further, Walter, and then I want to begin pulling in some of our panelists, other folks from Advent. 00:18:43.059 --> 00:18:45.699 In terms of trying to think about this through a Christian lens, 00:18:46.959 --> 00:18:53.219 and assuming that there is not a, quote unquote, Christian foreign policy, right? 00:18:53.220 --> 00:19:00.920 There's a whole range of potential avenues, both from a theoretical and theological perspective, 00:19:00.920 --> 00:19:04.620 as well as what events present to us, the forms of government that we have. 00:19:04.980 --> 00:19:15.740 But I do wonder your perspectives on what, what does, is there anything distinctive that a Christian perspective should bring to this? 00:19:15.740 --> 00:19:23.339 Or as Christians who are trying to think and engage in this, either through our vocations or simply, again, as informed citizens. 00:19:25.079 --> 00:19:28.920 Where, where does that come into these, these kinds of issues? 00:19:30.200 --> 00:19:36.299 I'd say the first place, I think, is that we as Christians should really have some humility coming into this. 00:19:36.299 --> 00:19:42.839 Because over the last hundred years, Christians have been pretty terrible in terms of their record in foreign policy. 00:19:42.980 --> 00:19:52.899 No one was more pacifistic in the 20s and 30s as Hitler and Stalin, as, you know, as sort of the world was changing, Japan was rising. 00:19:53.539 --> 00:19:57.139 Christians were still talking about the Christian campaign for disarmament. 00:19:57.140 --> 00:20:02.120 As Nazi and Soviet terror was killing tens of millions of people. 00:20:03.060 --> 00:20:11.600 So Christians, generally speaking, have not exhibited particularly strong judgment. 00:20:12.300 --> 00:20:16.820 Now, individual Christians have made serious contributions to statecraft. 00:20:17.420 --> 00:20:23.480 And so I think all of us really should begin with what the church has been doing. 00:20:23.480 --> 00:20:34.759 And you can talk about the sort of, you know, right-wing populist, nationalist, evangelical Christianity, or the more sophisticated, liberal, mainline Christianity, or whatever. 00:20:36.460 --> 00:20:45.559 Generally speaking, questions like, I find a lot of Christian leaders, and you can see this today in response to what's going on in Ukraine, 00:20:45.559 --> 00:20:57.240 are a little bit like sort of rabbis in a food factory saying, that's kosher, that's not kosher, that's what they would like to do. 00:20:57.720 --> 00:21:00.139 But I don't think they're particularly good at it. 00:21:01.019 --> 00:21:09.079 And in general, when I hear the Archbishop of Canterbury give his opinion about war or some other foreign policy issue, 00:21:09.079 --> 00:21:18.099 I don't pay attention, because Archbishop of Canterbury are so predictable and platitudinous, it's just not worth it. 00:21:18.439 --> 00:21:23.939 There are other things one should do to pay attention to be a good citizen. 00:21:24.939 --> 00:21:30.059 So what should I think, what do I think as Christians we should do, and then what do we have to offer? 00:21:31.220 --> 00:21:34.799 What we should do is, number one, be informed. 00:21:36.059 --> 00:21:39.000 Foreign policy is hard and complicated. 00:21:39.899 --> 00:21:45.179 The sort of Christian who comes chittering into the room, well, you know, I've read the Ten Commandments. 00:21:45.579 --> 00:21:51.359 I've even like read something about just war, so I'm now going to tell you what to do about Bosnia. 00:21:52.480 --> 00:21:53.519 He's a fool. 00:21:53.679 --> 00:21:54.460 She's a fool. 00:21:55.139 --> 00:21:57.319 Don't realize it, which makes them a bigger fool. 00:21:59.439 --> 00:22:02.019 You know, don't be that person. 00:22:03.519 --> 00:22:04.579 Study history. 00:22:05.960 --> 00:22:07.240 Read a lot of history. 00:22:07.240 --> 00:22:10.240 Diplomatic history as well. 00:22:10.339 --> 00:22:14.019 You know, to get some sense of how these decisions are made and what they are. 00:22:15.700 --> 00:22:21.839 Look, you know, look at ways in which Christians in the past have been right and Christians in the past have been wrong. 00:22:21.839 --> 00:22:24.459 Appreciate the ironies of history. 00:22:24.459 --> 00:22:26.119 The subtleties of history. 00:22:26.119 --> 00:22:28.819 Above all, the unpredictability. 00:22:29.359 --> 00:22:32.779 We don't know what's going to happen in Ukraine. 00:22:33.559 --> 00:22:34.959 We can't know. 00:22:34.960 --> 00:22:44.019 And yet the decisions that policymakers have to make are necessarily grounded in this imperfect knowledge. 00:22:44.579 --> 00:22:46.279 That's the human condition. 00:22:46.279 --> 00:22:58.460 And so the kind of dogmatism that everyone would like to sort of impose, like, I know, you know, one should never X or one should always Y. 00:22:58.879 --> 00:23:02.119 This is not how things really work. 00:23:02.200 --> 00:23:03.980 You couldn't raise kids that way. 00:23:03.980 --> 00:23:10.980 And frankly, foreign policy is almost as hard and almost as complicated as raising kids. 00:23:10.980 --> 00:23:23.700 And by the way, it's almost as useless to read books of IR theory as it is to read parenting books to understand how to raise kids. 00:23:24.579 --> 00:23:28.860 So that's one set of things I think we should do. 00:23:28.859 --> 00:23:43.740 But where Christians can bring, and at our best, maybe we do bring something to the table that otherwise would be missing, is first of all, a kind of a theological intellectual clarity about humanity. 00:23:45.579 --> 00:23:54.019 Reinhold Niebuhr, probably the Protestant theologian who had the greatest impact on American thinking and American foreign policy. 00:23:54.019 --> 00:23:59.299 George Kennan, for example, was a huge fan of Reinhold Niebuhr. 00:23:59.960 --> 00:24:03.839 Arthur Schlesinger said he wanted to found a chapter of atheists for Niebuhr. 00:24:05.059 --> 00:24:09.359 I don't, not many Protestant theologians that have had that kind of impact. 00:24:10.799 --> 00:24:20.900 You know, one of his big contributions was bringing the idea of original sin, a Christian doctrine, into practical politics. 00:24:20.900 --> 00:24:29.000 That is to say, understand the individuals in a, in any particular conflict are flawed. 00:24:29.280 --> 00:24:32.140 They are both, you know, there's both great good and great evil. 00:24:32.280 --> 00:24:33.820 And that's true of causes. 00:24:34.660 --> 00:24:36.900 Nationally, it's true of like labor versus management. 00:24:37.940 --> 00:24:41.519 They're both flawed, and yet they both have something real in there. 00:24:41.519 --> 00:24:51.119 Countries too, that you're, and that when a country is the most confident of its righteousness, that's often the time when original sin has blinded them. 00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:55.960 And yet at the same time, it can make you cowardly when you should be brave. 00:24:56.460 --> 00:25:06.779 But, but also that in an imperfect world where all the entities, all the causes, all the forces are, are imperfect. 00:25:06.779 --> 00:25:08.700 One must still act. 00:25:09.039 --> 00:25:09.160 Yeah. 00:25:09.599 --> 00:25:11.920 And sometimes one must still act with boldness. 00:25:13.079 --> 00:25:23.700 I think if we think through other Christian doctrines that we believe are theologically true, and we start thinking, well, they're also historically true. 00:25:25.680 --> 00:25:27.680 They're true of humanity as a group. 00:25:27.680 --> 00:25:31.779 Whether they're believers or not, they're still, these things still act as forces. 00:25:31.779 --> 00:25:38.559 We can use that to help develop stronger analytical frameworks about what's happening in the world. 00:25:38.700 --> 00:25:50.139 But we can also perhaps by demonstrating their utility to non-believers, maybe make a few friends for the church, which would not be perhaps a bad thing at this time. 00:25:51.220 --> 00:25:51.779 Super. 00:25:52.160 --> 00:25:53.399 So helpful, Walter. 00:25:53.759 --> 00:25:56.359 So much to respond to there. 00:25:56.359 --> 00:26:09.759 Let me pull in our panelists from Advent just to react and pick up on some of the themes that you've been talking about here and make this a broader conversation. 00:26:10.439 --> 00:26:11.299 Brant, let me turn to you. 00:26:11.379 --> 00:26:12.639 If we can spotlight Brant on here. 00:26:12.719 --> 00:26:13.279 Brant Siegel. 00:26:14.859 --> 00:26:23.799 We'll talk to Brant and to Ryan Poole and to Juliana Stowes, who many of you all know here at Advent. 00:26:23.799 --> 00:26:27.720 I just learned they're all in the same core group, the Advent core group together. 00:26:27.819 --> 00:26:34.579 So I'm not sure how that happened, but I'm sure there are some interesting foreign policy conversations going on in that core group during the week. 00:26:34.720 --> 00:26:39.099 So anyway, Brant, he's worked in U.S. foreign policy in Europe since 2008. 00:26:39.779 --> 00:26:50.639 He serves with DTRA, which is the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which works with the DOD on issues related to weapons of mass destruction and other kinds of emerging threats. 00:26:50.640 --> 00:26:57.540 And he has traveled and worked in Ukraine extensively since about 2015 until very recently. 00:26:58.360 --> 00:27:00.700 So, Brant, so good to have you here. 00:27:01.000 --> 00:27:10.060 Can you just take three minutes or so and just give us some observations from where you're situated and what you've observed and to add on to what Walter's been talking about here? 00:27:11.720 --> 00:27:12.380 Yeah, thanks. 00:27:12.380 --> 00:27:17.600 Thanks. So, yeah, I got a lot of thoughts from what I heard from Walter. 00:27:17.720 --> 00:27:20.720 Very, very interesting, very interesting discussion. 00:27:21.860 --> 00:27:29.480 I guess there are a couple of there's one sort of sort of 100 year arc that I'd like to call attention to. 00:27:29.480 --> 00:27:41.079 And that is, you know, the relationship of Russia to Ukraine in the 20s and 30s and the persecution of the Ukrainians. 00:27:42.160 --> 00:27:53.200 The denial of Ukrainian identity by the Bolsheviks and Stalin and how, you know, really there was just impunity. 00:27:53.200 --> 00:28:00.500 Stalin had it could just starve essentially four million people to death or send them to the gulags. 00:28:01.100 --> 00:28:04.000 And I come back to that history. 00:28:04.240 --> 00:28:07.039 And if you're interested, there's a great book called Red Famine about it. 00:28:07.100 --> 00:28:11.519 And it details it quite, quite in vivid detail. 00:28:11.519 --> 00:28:23.279 And that that sort of impunity is something that, to my mind, I'm concerned is at play now and that Putin can act with impunity within the borders of Ukraine. 00:28:23.279 --> 00:28:28.220 And I'm afraid that we're starting to see that and may see that even more. 00:28:29.059 --> 00:28:33.960 I wanted to pick up on Walter's concept of pre-war. 00:28:34.160 --> 00:28:35.759 We're in kind of a pre-war era. 00:28:35.759 --> 00:28:41.640 Without knowing the full concept, that resonates a lot with me. 00:28:42.259 --> 00:28:51.099 But I wonder if Walter would also, if I could suggest maybe that pre-war may be even before the annexation of Crimea. 00:28:51.099 --> 00:29:06.659 But even in the 2008 war that Russia launched in Georgia against, you know, using, again, separatist regions, Abkhazia, south of Syria, to generate this war in Georgia. 00:29:06.660 --> 00:29:19.080 And these other frozen conflicts that he has leveraged to great advantage in Moldova, in Armenia and Azerbaijan. 00:29:19.079 --> 00:29:28.379 And, you know, used essentially, again, being able to act with impunity in those regions. 00:29:28.919 --> 00:29:38.019 Add to that Belarus and Kazakhstan, where really no one has stopped Putin since 2008. 00:29:38.019 --> 00:29:56.420 And it isn't until recently that we have had cohesion in, you know, among the U.S., European nations nearby and then across the world to start to even say something that this is not okay. 00:29:56.420 --> 00:30:06.820 So I find it, you know, in those two regards, a long arc reminiscent of early 20th century, which is alarming. 00:30:07.860 --> 00:30:14.680 And then, you know, even in the last, say, 15 years, this has been going on for quite some time. 00:30:14.940 --> 00:30:18.880 This has been building, I would say, to this point. 00:30:19.100 --> 00:30:21.560 And Putin has had this in mind. 00:30:21.559 --> 00:30:27.220 And if you could go back and look at his speech in Munich, it was before 2008. 00:30:27.379 --> 00:30:34.339 And he basically outlined his view, his worldview that he is now implementing. 00:30:36.099 --> 00:30:37.159 Thanks for that, Brant. 00:30:37.740 --> 00:30:38.539 Super helpful. 00:30:39.019 --> 00:30:44.700 We'll circle back in a moment, Walter, to give you a couple of minutes just to respond to the points that our panelists are making. 00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:46.220 So, but let me turn to Ryan Poole. 00:30:47.159 --> 00:30:50.399 Ryan studied politics in Russian at the U.S. Air Force Academy. 00:30:50.400 --> 00:30:53.759 He's currently a U.S. Army Special Forces officer deployed here in D.C. 00:30:54.660 --> 00:30:59.740 He has deployed and served in the past in Africa, Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. 00:31:00.600 --> 00:31:05.500 And in 2017, he served as a director on the National Security Council at the White House. 00:31:06.120 --> 00:31:12.480 And subsequent to that, he served as a military attache at the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, in Ukraine. 00:31:13.120 --> 00:31:16.720 So, Ryan, really glad to have you joining us and sharing your perspectives. 00:31:16.820 --> 00:31:19.180 You want to just jump in and have some quick reflections? 00:31:19.180 --> 00:31:20.960 Yeah, just a couple of things. 00:31:21.799 --> 00:31:29.080 The part I took from your question on the key things to focus on, and Walter replied, the progress of the war. 00:31:29.360 --> 00:31:35.100 And for me personally and professionally, that's mostly what I am focused on right now is the progress of the war. 00:31:35.099 --> 00:31:47.579 And I think collectively, the U.S., the European allies, the media overestimated Russia's military capabilities and underestimated the Ukrainian military capabilities. 00:31:47.579 --> 00:31:53.139 I spent two years training Ukrainian military in Ukraine. 00:31:53.140 --> 00:31:55.759 And they were a great partner. 00:31:55.759 --> 00:32:02.420 And we got them up to certain units up to NATO standards. 00:32:02.420 --> 00:32:21.340 And going to the point of we got them to a standard so that they could fight when this type of event would happen with the understanding that NATO is not going to come to their rescue because they are not a NATO ally. 00:32:21.339 --> 00:32:26.119 And I'll stay out of the political reasoning for that. 00:32:26.119 --> 00:32:44.799 But from the perspective of why I personally think the Russians are underperforming and the Ukrainians are overperforming, from the Russian perspective, historically, we've always thought that post-Soviet collapse, the Russian military, under the current chief of the general staff, 00:32:44.799 --> 00:33:00.180 Valery Gerasimov, would incorporate this Gerasimov doctrine, which is focused on hybrid warfare, information warfare, which the Russians successfully used in Crimea in 2014 and Georgia in 2008. 00:33:00.559 --> 00:33:02.079 I think we expected to see it again. 00:33:02.079 --> 00:33:20.259 And I think what we're more seeing is the Soviet deep battle theory, which was they're going to send a lot of troops in to disrupt their enemy forces, cause disorganization amongst the enemy. 00:33:20.259 --> 00:33:34.500 But with that comes all the support and supply trains that is necessary to maintain that type of military doctrine, which the Russians just don't have. 00:33:35.599 --> 00:33:37.140 And so that I think was surprising. 00:33:37.140 --> 00:33:50.720 As far as the Ukrainians overperforming, as someone who trained them, I would say from all the partner forces I've worked with, they're the most capable partner force that I've ever worked with from a non-NATO country. 00:33:50.720 --> 00:34:10.179 And I think what we're seeing is their willingness to fight, their extreme nationalism, their love of country, and their hatred for the Russians based on the history that Brant just talked about has allowed them to fight in a way that we didn't expect. 00:34:10.179 --> 00:34:16.019 And I'll end with my personal expectation. 00:34:16.559 --> 00:34:37.179 And I think best case scenario would be that, you know, 2020, the 2020s in Ukraine become like the 1980s in Afghanistan for the Russians, where the Ukrainians are similar to the Mujahideen, and they're able to attrit Russian forces over the next several years until the Russians have to make an embarrassing exit or withdrawal. 00:34:37.179 --> 00:34:40.739 Brian, thanks for that. 00:34:41.259 --> 00:34:44.879 So, so helpful, bringing those perspectives in. 00:34:45.019 --> 00:34:47.039 Let me turn to Juliana Stowes. 00:34:47.199 --> 00:34:59.279 Juliana is a program officer in the Eurasia Division at the International Republican Institute, and she oversees implementation of democracy promotion projects in the country of Georgia. 00:34:59.280 --> 00:35:09.080 Before this, she worked at the National Endowment for Democracy, where she managed a portfolio of grants supporting civil society and independent media in the South Caucasus. 00:35:09.640 --> 00:35:15.300 And so, again, bringing a different perspective from the others that we've heard here. 00:35:15.600 --> 00:35:19.220 Juliana, so glad to have you joining us and bringing your thoughts here. 00:35:19.219 --> 00:35:21.339 Thanks, Jeff. 00:35:22.019 --> 00:35:37.339 I would just echo what Brent said, that I really think that this dates back to prior conflicts in 2008 in Georgia, and even some lessons that have been learned from the conflicts in Chechnya over the past couple decades. 00:35:37.340 --> 00:36:00.800 And that what we're likely going to see as a result of this more drawn out conflict is a narrative coming out and being disseminated to countries that are more open to Western and European integration, such as Georgia and Moldova, 00:36:00.800 --> 00:36:23.300 that the West and NATO are not going, are not and cannot and will not help you, and that that can have much broader implications beyond just the specific conflict between Russia and Ukraine, because it will have policy implications within those countries. 00:36:23.300 --> 00:36:40.880 Which, as someone who monitors Georgia especially, I've already seen that with the government trying to thread the needle, because we're seeing the Russian leadership articulate very clearly, these are the red lines. 00:36:40.880 --> 00:37:03.440 And if you cross that, then you are in the other camp, which for Russia's neighborhood has meant many of the post-Soviet, many of the former Soviet republics have tried to stay largely silent and try to stay under the radar because their populations are genuinely concerned that they could be next. 00:37:03.440 --> 00:37:19.900 Or that this could ultimately result in a much more challenging geopolitical situation for them, if nothing else, which Russia feels that it can act with greater impunity, depending upon the lessons that it's able to draw from this case. 00:37:19.900 --> 00:37:49.460 I would also say that a major component of this is the fact that Russia is a kleptocracy, and that the oligarchs in the country are largely able to continue to operate as they please, and are able to leave the country and operate in environments where they are not subject to the sanctions or 00:37:49.460 --> 00:37:54.460 where they are able to run the sanctions or where they are able to funnel their funds through their family members. 00:37:54.460 --> 00:38:12.460 And that if we just have more broad sanctions, those end up hurting the Russian economy and the Russian people greater than those who are able to then have decision making power within the political elites in the country. 00:38:12.460 --> 00:38:28.360 And it can ultimately create a fire sale where the oligarchs are able to buy a greater portion of the country and greater power within Russia's borders, regardless of how this turns out. 00:38:28.360 --> 00:38:41.720 I've seen also some questions about the Russian Orthodox Church and its relationship with the government, and I've done a bit of research on this topic myself. 00:38:41.719 --> 00:39:08.459 And I would say that a big factor of this is the concept of symphonia within Orthodoxy, which looks at two spheres of influence that the government is tasked with administration of the state and ensuring the status of the church within this broader Orthodox Russia, 00:39:08.460 --> 00:39:15.460 while the church is tasked with the moral authority within the country. 00:39:15.460 --> 00:39:27.360 And that may have been the case in Tsarist Russia, and there are themes where Putin tries to emulate some of that Tsarist power. 00:39:27.360 --> 00:39:55.420 But that because Russia, in its current state and constitution is a secular nation, and the Orthodox Church, given its history with the Soviet Union, is unwilling to enter into a more vulnerable relationship with the state where it could open itself up to some of the trauma that it experienced under Soviet rule. 00:39:55.420 --> 00:40:08.920 Instead, the Orthodox Church has a much more informal status within the Russian state and is acting as a political actor in order to lobby on its own behalf. 00:40:08.920 --> 00:40:23.900 And so the patriarchate, as a result, especially the Russian patriarch himself, are thus used by Putin in order to further the state's goals, including geopolitically. 00:40:23.900 --> 00:40:46.820 For example, in Georgia, the Georgian Orthodox Church has not had the full ability to voice opinions on the conflict over its occupied regions because of the very overt threat that the Russian Orthodox Church would then recognize the autocephaly of the Apostian Orthodox Church, 00:40:46.820 --> 00:40:52.820 and that they would lose that connection with that part of their faith. 00:40:55.200 --> 00:40:57.880 Thanks, Juliana. So, so helpful. 00:40:58.980 --> 00:41:02.680 I feel like I'm learning a huge amount here in a short space of time. 00:41:02.820 --> 00:41:09.580 I want to, we've got a ton of questions from people, but Walter, can I ask you just to, I mean, this is completely unfair, right? 00:41:09.579 --> 00:41:14.079 Because we've just heard a huge amount of incredible input from folks with real expertise here. 00:41:14.159 --> 00:41:19.500 But can you just take a minute or so just to, something that stands out from you that you might respond to. 00:41:19.639 --> 00:41:23.199 And as you're doing that, folks, as you have questions, 00:41:23.759 --> 00:41:31.519 the easiest way for us to see you when we have this many people on a call is to use that little raise your hand icon there in the Zoom box. 00:41:31.519 --> 00:41:36.860 So go ahead and just use that. And can I ask, when you ask a question, just make it really short. 00:41:36.900 --> 00:41:41.679 We want to get through as many as we can here because there's a lot of great questions and a lot of ground to cover. 00:41:41.780 --> 00:41:46.239 But Walter, as folks are doing that, any just quick responses to what you heard here? 00:41:47.119 --> 00:41:50.039 Well, you know, I think, I mean, there was so much good stuff there. 00:41:50.500 --> 00:41:50.659 Yeah. 00:41:51.539 --> 00:41:58.679 I guess I would emphasize the historical roots of what we're seeing that a number of you raised. 00:41:58.679 --> 00:42:07.139 And, you know, the impact of not just 20th century Russian history, but 19th century Russian history, 00:42:07.139 --> 00:42:11.919 where there's real suppression of Ukrainian nationalism, Polish nationalism. 00:42:12.579 --> 00:42:22.599 We're kind of aware in the U.S. in some ways that roughly 2 million Jews were driven out of Russia between 1880 and 1910. 00:42:22.599 --> 00:42:26.460 And 95 percent of them really ended up in the U.S. 00:42:26.480 --> 00:42:32.239 And that's where the overwhelming majority of American Jews came from as refugees from Russia. 00:42:32.759 --> 00:42:42.119 Another roughly 2 million, roughly the same number of Muslims were driven south from Russian persecutions in the Caucasus and so on. 00:42:42.119 --> 00:42:54.599 All part of the sort of Russian nationalism linked to the Orthodox Church in many ways is they're trying to create and impose an identity on this sprawling empire. 00:42:54.960 --> 00:42:57.539 So there are, you know, deep roots. 00:42:59.019 --> 00:43:06.859 And Russia has shaped the reality of the contemporary world far more deeply, often than we understand. 00:43:06.860 --> 00:43:10.519 And a crisis like this should take us all back to the history books. 00:43:11.620 --> 00:43:12.340 That's great. 00:43:12.700 --> 00:43:13.160 Absolutely. 00:43:13.420 --> 00:43:13.980 Thanks, Walter. 00:43:14.160 --> 00:43:14.860 Really helpful. 00:43:16.599 --> 00:43:19.440 I want to open it up to broad Q&A. 00:43:19.539 --> 00:43:32.340 So if you can use the, raise your hand there and then give us a kind of succinct question for either for Walter and or the panel to speak to. 00:43:32.340 --> 00:43:38.500 But as you're doing that, I'm just reading here in the chats, lots of good questions in the chat, chats. 00:43:38.660 --> 00:43:42.800 And I do want to, I don't see Yuri on my screen here, but I'm seeing in the chat. 00:43:42.860 --> 00:43:55.900 I want to make sure that we loop in Yuri Barofsky, who is a member of Advent and who is Ukrainian and has a number of different perspectives on this. 00:43:55.900 --> 00:44:11.160 Yuri, are you, I don't see you on my screen here, but can you, can you just give us a sort of, we want to leave time for as many questions as we can, but it'd be great to get a minute from you in terms of your, where you're situated in this, in this regard. 00:44:12.059 --> 00:44:12.660 Thank you. 00:44:13.039 --> 00:44:14.380 Yeah, I just came on the video. 00:44:14.380 --> 00:44:17.000 And thank you very much for your prayers today, Church. 00:44:17.240 --> 00:44:22.000 I just want to support the United States that Ukraine received so far. 00:44:22.480 --> 00:44:27.480 I think a couple of things I want to mention is, you know, the Democratic government on all the sex. 00:44:28.240 --> 00:44:34.740 Where Ukraine had a lot of pressure from the West, particularly economic pressure and then diplomatic pressure. 00:44:35.860 --> 00:44:40.539 Decided to be the good guy and give up weapons of mass destruction and nuclear warheads. 00:44:40.539 --> 00:44:43.279 Ukraine did not have the missiles to deliver the warheads. 00:44:44.019 --> 00:44:48.019 So they were kind of useless, but they were real dangerous. 00:44:48.179 --> 00:44:51.539 Ukraine was the third of most dangerous nuclear warheads. 00:44:51.539 --> 00:44:55.820 Ukraine gave up communication agreement. 00:44:57.739 --> 00:45:04.360 And that's a great question. 00:45:05.659 --> 00:45:08.539 And independence. 00:45:08.539 --> 00:45:11.000 Audio is not working. 00:45:11.800 --> 00:45:14.599 Yuri, I'm so sorry, but we're only catching a few of your words. 00:45:14.679 --> 00:45:16.340 I'm not sure what's happening with the audio there. 00:45:16.800 --> 00:45:20.659 So, but we are capturing your comments in the chat box. 00:45:20.759 --> 00:45:24.539 I do encourage everybody to go and actually read in the chat box there because Yuri has, 00:45:24.699 --> 00:45:30.199 has offered some really, I think, helpful perspectives from this that are really valuable. 00:45:30.400 --> 00:45:33.500 I'm not sure what's happening with the audio there, but we were only catching a few words. 00:45:33.500 --> 00:45:39.480 So, David Noel, you've got your hand raised there. 00:45:42.480 --> 00:45:43.119 Hi. 00:45:43.480 --> 00:45:47.800 So I have a question mostly for Ryan, but also just kind of for the panel. 00:45:47.800 --> 00:45:52.480 I think Ryan said something about like best case. 00:45:52.760 --> 00:45:56.720 This kind of turns into like Russia's Afghanistan or something like that. 00:45:57.680 --> 00:46:02.380 And of course, Afghanistan was like essentially destroyed by decades of war. 00:46:02.380 --> 00:46:09.700 And so I'm curious, how should we think about both in general and from a Christian perspective, 00:46:10.480 --> 00:46:17.980 weighing the prospect of perhaps a shorter war that has a less just in versus a longer 00:46:17.980 --> 00:46:21.340 war that brings with enormous amounts of human suffering? 00:46:21.340 --> 00:46:25.500 I mean, ultimately, I think that's up to the Ukrainians. 00:46:25.620 --> 00:46:29.559 It's not our place to tell them that fight, but what should we be rooting for? 00:46:29.640 --> 00:46:31.100 And how should we think through those factors? 00:46:33.720 --> 00:46:34.079 Yeah. 00:46:34.460 --> 00:46:37.539 One just kind of quick comment on that, David. 00:46:37.840 --> 00:46:42.320 So I'd say best case scenario, that's just based on the fact that I think no one knows 00:46:42.320 --> 00:46:43.220 what's going to happen. 00:46:43.420 --> 00:46:44.920 We don't know what Putin is going to do. 00:46:45.059 --> 00:46:49.500 And as Walter mentioned, there haven't really, really been any off ramps that have been designed 00:46:49.500 --> 00:46:50.119 for Putin. 00:46:50.679 --> 00:46:57.280 So if Putin decides to continue this war for a significant period of time, based on what 00:46:57.280 --> 00:47:02.539 we're seeing with the Russian resistance and the unified Western response of supporting 00:47:02.539 --> 00:47:09.980 with lethal aid, I think that's probably the most likely outcome as far as that would be 00:47:09.980 --> 00:47:11.179 the best likely outcome. 00:47:11.940 --> 00:47:19.480 As far as the question related to the Christian response to a quick and brutal fight, 00:47:19.500 --> 00:47:27.420 or a long and destructive fight, I don't think it's really in our, unless we choose to 00:47:27.420 --> 00:47:36.039 go to war with Russia, which that is outside of, that's just, I think that's off the table. 00:47:37.099 --> 00:47:42.840 Unless they trigger Article 5, then this is in the hands of the Ukrainians, and it's in 00:47:42.840 --> 00:47:44.920 the hands of Putin, essentially. 00:47:44.920 --> 00:47:49.240 Thanks, Ryan. 00:47:49.700 --> 00:47:51.680 Any of our other panelists want to jump in on that? 00:47:51.960 --> 00:47:53.400 Otherwise, we'll go to the next question. 00:47:53.980 --> 00:47:56.659 I'll jump in real quick, just for clarification. 00:47:57.300 --> 00:48:04.300 Article 5 is a NATO article that essentially says that an attack on one NATO nation is an 00:48:04.300 --> 00:48:05.619 attack on all NATO nations. 00:48:05.680 --> 00:48:07.740 And that's a really important point that Ryan brought up. 00:48:07.739 --> 00:48:16.899 And it's why our government has stated that they will not send troops into Ukraine because 00:48:16.899 --> 00:48:20.339 Ukraine is not a NATO member. 00:48:20.919 --> 00:48:29.379 So back in 06 or 07, we tried to get Georgia and Ukraine admitted to NATO. 00:48:29.380 --> 00:48:32.260 And back then, there were no separatist regions in those countries. 00:48:32.900 --> 00:48:39.079 But the Western allies, particularly Germany and France, important note, they basically 00:48:39.079 --> 00:48:46.900 stood in the way of US and Britain pushing for, pushing very hard for what's called MAP, 00:48:46.980 --> 00:48:48.059 Membership Action Plan. 00:48:48.059 --> 00:48:56.539 And, you know, that's, I think that Yuri mentioned one thing that Ukraine also did, a program that 00:48:56.539 --> 00:49:05.460 I'm a part of, the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, disarmed the nuclear warheads in Ukraine 00:49:05.460 --> 00:49:10.299 in exchange for an agreement between Russia and the United States for Ukraine's territorial 00:49:10.299 --> 00:49:10.820 integrity. 00:49:11.299 --> 00:49:12.039 You all know how that went. 00:49:12.039 --> 00:49:27.279 So the whole, you know, intervening very, very quickly escalates into some scenarios that 00:49:27.279 --> 00:49:28.779 are, that would be really concerning. 00:49:29.500 --> 00:49:39.380 Even now, I, things that I, I worry about that I watch are escalatory actions. 00:49:39.380 --> 00:49:46.539 Say it's a cyber attack from Russia intended for Ukraine, but perhaps there's collateral 00:49:46.539 --> 00:49:53.180 damage in, in Poland or an errant missile that lands in Romania or something like that. 00:49:53.360 --> 00:49:56.980 And one of those countries invokes Article 5. 00:49:57.840 --> 00:49:59.079 What is NATO going to do? 00:49:59.160 --> 00:50:06.340 Then they're going to be in this scenario where either we respond and escalate or NATO ceases 00:50:06.340 --> 00:50:10.840 to have its raison d'etre, its reason for being. 00:50:10.840 --> 00:50:16.220 It, it, it essentially, the Article 5, you know, an attack on one is an attack on all, 00:50:16.660 --> 00:50:18.140 just dissipates. 00:50:18.260 --> 00:50:19.720 And then what is NATO? 00:50:20.300 --> 00:50:28.600 And then that is like a huge domino effect for us and for, you know, the post-World War 00:50:28.600 --> 00:50:32.740 II Roosevelt-Truman kind of era that we've been living under. 00:50:32.739 --> 00:50:38.919 Um, with some relative peace, at least in some regions of the world, especially in Europe. 00:50:38.919 --> 00:50:45.939 Um, so that's where like the stakes of this, um, are just so high, um, that it's really, 00:50:45.939 --> 00:50:53.079 um, and to, and coming back to Ryan's point, like this ends up being a fight between, you 00:50:53.079 --> 00:50:56.659 know, Putin and the Ukrainians and their will to fight. 00:50:56.659 --> 00:50:58.219 Um, that's great. 00:50:58.559 --> 00:50:59.359 Thanks for that. 00:50:59.679 --> 00:51:01.159 So here's what I want to do. 00:51:01.420 --> 00:51:06.139 Um, we are supposed to finish at nine o'clock and I want to honor that for people. 00:51:06.279 --> 00:51:09.879 I know it's a Sunday night and people have kids and work and everything like that, but, 00:51:09.899 --> 00:51:12.519 um, there are so many good questions here. 00:51:12.519 --> 00:51:17.139 And my phone is blowing up with texts saying, can we keep going a little bit longer, please? 00:51:17.139 --> 00:51:25.759 Um, so, um, what I'd like to do for those that are able to stay until nine 15, we'll keep 00:51:25.759 --> 00:51:27.000 going until nine 15. 00:51:27.139 --> 00:51:32.339 However, I want to do a kind of end point for those that do need to hop off now. 00:51:32.799 --> 00:51:38.019 Um, I want to ask one of the things that we were talking about as a team is, um, obviously 00:51:38.019 --> 00:51:41.579 there's a deep desire to help in some kind of practical and tangible way. 00:51:41.579 --> 00:51:46.179 So Jeff Simpson, I'm going to ask if you can just, um, point us in the right direction as 00:51:46.179 --> 00:51:49.679 a church for what we can do for, uh, for Ukraine. 00:51:50.019 --> 00:51:54.619 Um, and then Tommy, I'm going to ask if you would just, um, uh, any comments that you want 00:51:54.619 --> 00:51:54.940 to make. 00:51:54.940 --> 00:52:00.279 And then if you would just, um, lead us in a prayer for Ukraine and for all who are involved 00:52:00.279 --> 00:52:00.739 in this. 00:52:01.159 --> 00:52:05.159 Um, and that'll take us here to that nine o'clock point, but then we're going to keep the call 00:52:05.159 --> 00:52:07.659 going for another 15 minutes until nine 15. 00:52:07.659 --> 00:52:14.239 Um, and that will just give us time to get to so many of the questions, um, and the, 00:52:14.319 --> 00:52:17.739 and the interest, I think, and the energy around this, um, to, to stay on. 00:52:18.039 --> 00:52:19.619 Um, so Jeff and then Tommy. 00:52:22.299 --> 00:52:24.239 Thanks everybody, uh, for sharing. 00:52:24.359 --> 00:52:26.179 I've really enjoyed listening in tonight. 00:52:26.379 --> 00:52:30.000 Um, I think one of the questions that you may have been asking in the past couple of weeks 00:52:30.000 --> 00:52:35.759 and even maybe even during the event tonight is how can I help people who have been affected 00:52:35.759 --> 00:52:36.460 by this? 00:52:36.460 --> 00:52:39.880 Um, how can I help people who are suffering as a result of all this? 00:52:39.880 --> 00:52:43.099 And so we just wanted to highlight a few practical ways that you can do that. 00:52:43.659 --> 00:52:50.079 Um, the first is that you can directly support, uh, something called the Anglican Relief and 00:52:50.079 --> 00:52:56.360 Development Fund, uh, which is a, um, a fund that can help Anglican local churches all around 00:52:56.360 --> 00:52:56.720 the world. 00:52:56.860 --> 00:53:02.300 Uh, the money will go directly to local Anglican churches, pastors, congregations that are ministering 00:53:02.300 --> 00:53:04.420 to those who are in need on the front lines. 00:53:04.420 --> 00:53:07.500 And so we'll put that link in the chat for you if you'd like to give to that. 00:53:08.059 --> 00:53:12.900 Um, we'd also like to provide a couple opportunities for you to help people in our congregation 00:53:12.900 --> 00:53:18.700 who are, um, directly, um, directly tied to what's going on. 00:53:18.780 --> 00:53:23.880 And so you heard from Yuri earlier, um, and we got Yuri and his wife's permission to share 00:53:23.880 --> 00:53:25.639 about, um, a need they have. 00:53:25.639 --> 00:53:29.800 Um, Yuri's mother, um, immigrated to the U.S. 00:53:29.800 --> 00:53:36.800 A couple, um, a month or two ago and, uh, is from Ukraine and, uh, and now is likely 00:53:36.800 --> 00:53:39.120 that she will be here longer, um, than expected. 00:53:39.120 --> 00:53:44.560 And so, um, Yuri and Colleen have highlighted some needs, um, assistance for helping her with 00:53:44.560 --> 00:53:50.380 things like, uh, documents for her immigration status, um, medical insurance, um, figuring 00:53:50.380 --> 00:53:51.880 out various issues related to housing. 00:53:51.880 --> 00:53:57.140 And so if you have any resources, expertise in the area, um, love to highlight that for 00:53:57.140 --> 00:53:57.360 you. 00:53:57.440 --> 00:54:00.440 You can email admin at adventdc.org. 00:54:00.720 --> 00:54:05.460 Uh, we'll also put that in the chat if, uh, if you would like to, uh, assist with that. 00:54:05.660 --> 00:54:10.460 Um, and then Veronica and David Kerr, uh, also have some close family and friends connections 00:54:10.460 --> 00:54:11.019 in Ukraine. 00:54:11.320 --> 00:54:15.420 Um, and so if you would like to help with what they're doing and support what they're doing, 00:54:15.420 --> 00:54:16.920 uh, you can email them as well. 00:54:16.920 --> 00:54:18.980 And I'll put Veronica's email in the chat. 00:54:18.980 --> 00:54:21.360 So I'm going to turn it over to Tommy. 00:54:21.880 --> 00:54:23.960 Great. 00:54:24.099 --> 00:54:24.700 Thanks, Jeff. 00:54:24.840 --> 00:54:27.440 And thanks to all of you who are joining tonight. 00:54:27.579 --> 00:54:33.500 Those who have shared from your own experience, what, what a privilege to be able to have this 00:54:33.500 --> 00:54:34.420 conversation with you. 00:54:34.519 --> 00:54:36.000 So really, really appreciate that. 00:54:36.380 --> 00:54:38.940 Um, let's pray the Lord be with you. 00:54:39.860 --> 00:54:41.820 Let's pray Lord. 00:54:41.920 --> 00:54:48.880 We, this, we lament, we lament with those who are suffering what is happening right now 00:54:48.880 --> 00:54:49.800 in Ukraine. 00:54:49.800 --> 00:54:57.440 We lament the murder, the destruction, the senselessness of this war. 00:54:58.140 --> 00:55:05.560 Lord, uh, we, we pray, we, I, we, we, we think of your words in Psalm two, where you, 00:55:05.960 --> 00:55:11.600 where you say, therefore you Kings be wise, be warned you rulers of the earth, serve the 00:55:11.600 --> 00:55:14.320 Lord with fear and celebrate his rule with trembling. 00:55:14.320 --> 00:55:17.640 Kiss the sun or he will be angry. 00:55:17.640 --> 00:55:22.080 And your way will lead to your destruction for his wrath can flare up in a moment. 00:55:22.080 --> 00:55:24.180 Blessed are all who take refuge in him. 00:55:24.960 --> 00:55:31.400 Lord, we, we, we pray those words into this situation, uh, in particular for the leadership 00:55:31.400 --> 00:55:37.980 of Russia and, and Putin, Lord, we, we think of the words in James four, what causes quarrels 00:55:37.980 --> 00:55:40.139 and what causes fights among you. 00:55:40.260 --> 00:55:46.160 Is it not this, that your passions are at war within you, whatever inner war there is 00:55:46.160 --> 00:55:50.340 in Putin's heart and the heart of the other leaders and generals that drives this outer 00:55:50.340 --> 00:55:50.700 war. 00:55:50.699 --> 00:55:57.199 Lord, we, we pray for a ceasefire of that inner spiritual war, uh, Lord, whatever, whatever 00:55:57.199 --> 00:56:02.159 leads, whatever motivates the destruction and the killing Lord, we pray for an end of 00:56:02.159 --> 00:56:02.439 that. 00:56:02.960 --> 00:56:08.539 Um, we pray for all of those who are displaced, all of those who are, um, forced to leave their 00:56:08.539 --> 00:56:08.939 country. 00:56:09.099 --> 00:56:11.399 We pray for all of those who are staying to fight. 00:56:11.500 --> 00:56:13.379 We pray for families who are separated. 00:56:13.960 --> 00:56:20.359 Uh, Lord, we pray for those who are in fear, uncertainty, Lord, uh, Lord, uh, in all of 00:56:20.360 --> 00:56:24.579 these situations, we pray that you would present that you would be present and that your mercy 00:56:24.579 --> 00:56:26.680 would be, uh, palpable Lord. 00:56:26.980 --> 00:56:30.539 Um, we pray for a swift end to this. 00:56:30.720 --> 00:56:35.000 We pray that Russia would give up and go home, Lord. 00:56:35.059 --> 00:56:41.519 We pray that these beautiful cities and culture and people, this, um, this society would be preserved 00:56:41.519 --> 00:56:43.480 Lord from, from destruction. 00:56:43.860 --> 00:56:45.260 Um, summon your power. 00:56:45.260 --> 00:56:46.700 Oh God, show us your strength. 00:56:46.700 --> 00:56:49.599 Oh God, if you have done before rebuke the beast. 00:56:49.599 --> 00:56:53.319 Waste among the reeds, the herd of bulls among the calves, humbled. 00:56:53.460 --> 00:57:00.000 May the beast bring bars of silver, scatter the nations who delight in war, Lord, to the 00:57:00.000 --> 00:57:04.460 extent that this nation, this Russian nation delights in war, scatter them, weaken them, 00:57:04.579 --> 00:57:08.360 Lord, and bring a swift end to this, uh, needless conflict. 00:57:08.360 --> 00:57:13.440 We pray this and we pray that you would lead us to follow your will, uh, Lord, and that 00:57:13.440 --> 00:57:17.699 you would open to us ways that we might support and love and care for people who are affected 00:57:17.699 --> 00:57:20.839 by this, um, including the people in our own midst, Lord. 00:57:20.939 --> 00:57:22.519 We pray this in your son's holy name. 00:57:22.919 --> 00:57:23.219 Amen. 00:57:24.399 --> 00:57:24.759 Amen. 00:57:25.659 --> 00:57:26.239 Thank you. 00:57:26.419 --> 00:57:27.299 Thank you so much. 00:57:27.980 --> 00:57:29.500 So I encourage you to stick around. 00:57:29.579 --> 00:57:31.980 We're going to go for another, we're going to go to nine 15. 00:57:32.099 --> 00:57:33.519 So another 11 minutes here. 00:57:33.519 --> 00:57:35.819 If you do need to hop off, do feel free. 00:57:35.820 --> 00:57:42.000 Um, but we've got, um, time here, um, for, uh, for some more questions and to dig into 00:57:42.000 --> 00:57:42.960 this a little bit more deeply. 00:57:42.960 --> 00:57:50.820 So, um, uh, Jeff Goodman, I have seen your hand raised there and, uh, thanks. 00:57:51.039 --> 00:57:58.539 Um, uh, one con I'm concerned that, uh, I get the NATO agreement of like, we're only going 00:57:58.539 --> 00:58:01.200 to attack if it's been a NATO country. 00:58:01.199 --> 00:58:07.799 But at the same time, I feel like Putin's called our bluff a little bit because, and 00:58:07.799 --> 00:58:10.879 what does this say to other countries with maybe similar ambitions? 00:58:10.879 --> 00:58:16.859 If basically we can attack non NATO countries and continue to make progress around the world 00:58:16.859 --> 00:58:18.579 and they won't do anything about it. 00:58:19.500 --> 00:58:22.899 Um, you know, they're, I'm concerned about that. 00:58:23.219 --> 00:58:27.279 You know, I'm just curious what your thoughts on that. 00:58:27.359 --> 00:58:30.699 You know, I'm not saying it's easy to just go in obviously to a nuclear power. 00:58:30.699 --> 00:58:33.639 It's just, it's really hard to not see this emboldening. 00:58:34.659 --> 00:58:38.059 Um, yeah, they're similar minded folks. 00:58:38.619 --> 00:58:38.960 Thanks, Jeff. 00:58:39.059 --> 00:58:40.099 Who wants to take that on? 00:58:40.939 --> 00:58:47.699 Well, I do think I remember writing back in the 1990s that if you, if you put up no fishing 00:58:47.699 --> 00:58:52.960 signs on one side of the lake, uh, you're making a statement about the other side of the 00:58:52.960 --> 00:58:53.760 lake as well. 00:58:54.559 --> 00:59:00.880 And that, um, and that NATO expansion that didn't go right up to Russia's border would, 00:59:01.159 --> 00:59:04.380 you know, everywhere would create exactly this problem. 00:59:04.480 --> 00:59:07.760 There'd be this indeterminate, insecure zone. 00:59:08.420 --> 00:59:13.039 Um, and we do seem to be there, uh, exactly there. 00:59:13.039 --> 00:59:18.059 Um, I think Moldova is, is worried and quite rightly. 00:59:19.059 --> 00:59:26.759 Um, yeah, uh, look, it's actually not true of course that we, that we only defend NATO countries 00:59:26.759 --> 00:59:32.539 when Kuwait was attacked by Iraq, um, in the, in the first Gulf war, we went right in. 00:59:32.539 --> 00:59:39.940 So, um, but, you know, but we act where we think our interests lead us to act. 00:59:39.940 --> 00:59:45.679 And it was interesting that, that the one thing that probably could have deterred Putin, 00:59:45.679 --> 00:59:52.019 which would have been a quick bilateral security deal between the U S and Ukraine, one that would 00:59:52.019 --> 00:59:59.259 not have required the rest of NATO to, to exceed to it and then send 50,000 American troops to, 00:59:59.260 --> 01:00:05.580 uh, Ukraine was off the table because nobody in either party thought that American public opinion 01:00:05.580 --> 01:00:07.080 would have accepted it. 01:00:07.840 --> 01:00:13.140 Um, you know, you could talk to very liberal anti-Russian senators and talk to very conservative 01:00:13.140 --> 01:00:14.600 anti-Russian senators. 01:00:14.880 --> 01:00:17.480 And that's exactly, you know, you would hear the same thing. 01:00:17.520 --> 01:00:18.900 It's just impossible. 01:00:18.900 --> 01:00:19.980 It's not on the table. 01:00:20.600 --> 01:00:27.280 So what, what seems to have happened is that Putin understood the gap between, he didn't understand 01:00:27.280 --> 01:00:33.580 the Ukrainian military or even the Russian military, but he understands the gap between 01:00:33.580 --> 01:00:40.480 our rhetoric, um, you know, and our sort of moral posturing about our beliefs and our values, 01:00:40.480 --> 01:00:43.760 and then what we're actually willing and able to do. 01:00:44.160 --> 01:00:48.860 And so it's in that gap that he operates very effectively. 01:00:48.860 --> 01:00:52.059 That's good. 01:00:52.260 --> 01:00:52.860 Thanks, Walter. 01:00:53.720 --> 01:00:55.519 Uh, Rob, Rob Vest. 01:00:55.660 --> 01:00:58.120 I saw you, you've got your hand raised there. 01:00:58.559 --> 01:00:58.860 Yeah. 01:00:59.039 --> 01:01:01.420 Um, does that, I had asked the question in the chat. 01:01:01.539 --> 01:01:06.680 Um, there's a, an undertone from a lot of people about, uh, this has to be stopped, you 01:01:06.680 --> 01:01:09.640 know, the reference to Munich and, and other comments. 01:01:09.639 --> 01:01:18.619 Do you think that this has to be stopped rises to the level of NATO engaging in a war with 01:01:18.619 --> 01:01:19.259 Russia? 01:01:19.719 --> 01:01:26.139 And if it does, what risk does that pose, you know, militarily, you know, to those who's 01:01:26.139 --> 01:01:27.940 living here in the capital of the U S 01:01:27.940 --> 01:01:31.739 Thanks. 01:01:31.739 --> 01:01:35.579 Well, I mean, you're right. 01:01:35.699 --> 01:01:43.199 It, it poses exactly that threat and that's why, um, there's very little call in the U S 01:01:43.199 --> 01:01:45.179 for us to start a war with Russia. 01:01:45.559 --> 01:01:51.639 It's why I talk about things like no fly zones that could be, that could, uh, significantly 01:01:51.639 --> 01:01:58.579 increase the, the chance of a war between NATO and Russia, uh, are, are so, you know, there's 01:01:58.579 --> 01:02:01.579 so much opposition at the same time. 01:02:01.739 --> 01:02:06.659 You know, as, as was noted during the panel, I forget which one of you made the point, it's 01:02:06.659 --> 01:02:13.619 really good that, that, you know, suppose Russia fires a missile and it hits a target in Poland, 01:02:13.619 --> 01:02:20.699 even though it wasn't intended to, um, you know, simply, uh, our decision that we won't 01:02:20.699 --> 01:02:28.779 deliberately take an action that provokes launches a war doesn't mean that we won't be in a situation 01:02:28.779 --> 01:02:30.139 where a war starts. 01:02:30.139 --> 01:02:34.679 And, and that's something I think we should all keep in mind. 01:02:34.679 --> 01:02:40.839 And to some degree, you could argue that the less Putin is afraid, the more Putin thinks 01:02:40.839 --> 01:02:45.599 that NATO is going to do everything possible to stay out of a war with Russia, the more 01:02:45.599 --> 01:02:53.219 likely he is to make a miscalculation that accidentally gets us into exactly this kind 01:02:53.219 --> 01:02:55.759 of a war. 01:02:55.759 --> 01:02:57.759 So it's not a, it's not a simple don't provoke Russia. 01:02:57.759 --> 01:03:00.759 And then we won't have a war situation. 01:03:00.760 --> 01:03:07.340 It's actually a really messy thing in a very kinetic environment where a lot of things are 01:03:07.340 --> 01:03:10.140 happening that people don't control very well. 01:03:10.139 --> 01:03:18.299 Isn't that exactly what we've done though, is kind of telegraphed that we're not going to get involved. 01:03:19.480 --> 01:03:21.019 We've done our best to do that. 01:03:21.019 --> 01:03:21.320 Yeah. 01:03:21.320 --> 01:03:26.800 Right. And as a result, Putin has then taken the opportunity to push farther. 01:03:26.800 --> 01:03:32.120 Because he knows that, you know, the risk of a retaliation is less. 01:03:32.119 --> 01:03:38.259 So that, for example, if he was afraid that NATO might come into the war, he might stay out of 01:03:38.259 --> 01:03:39.279 Western Ukraine. 01:03:40.179 --> 01:03:46.500 Right. But if he's convinced that no matter what he does, NATO is going to continue to try to stay 01:03:46.500 --> 01:03:53.279 out of the war, that would increase for him the attractiveness of moving into Western Ukraine. 01:03:53.279 --> 01:03:59.440 And the closer he gets to those borders with NATO, the bigger the chance there is that the war 01:03:59.440 --> 01:04:03.159 overlaps those boundaries in some way. 01:04:04.559 --> 01:04:13.039 So it's not like there's some kind of like magic button you can hit that makes this problem go away. 01:04:14.920 --> 01:04:18.079 Yuri Barofsky, let's hope your sound, we can hear you here. 01:04:18.220 --> 01:04:19.820 Let's jump in there with a question. 01:04:20.420 --> 01:04:22.300 Thank you. Can you hear me now? I joined on the phone. 01:04:22.300 --> 01:04:23.300 Yes, we can. 01:04:23.800 --> 01:04:26.579 Wonderful. Walter, thank you for your really deep perspective. 01:04:26.820 --> 01:04:28.340 You really laid it out really well. 01:04:28.340 --> 01:04:33.760 I think one other question that hasn't been unpacked is to what extent Europe has appetite 01:04:33.760 --> 01:04:35.160 for Ukrainian refugees? 01:04:35.559 --> 01:04:38.440 Because at this point, the stem of refugees is continuing. 01:04:38.620 --> 01:04:39.320 It's picking up. 01:04:40.440 --> 01:04:46.160 And at some point, Europe is, there's only a certain capacity and an appetite for it. 01:04:46.340 --> 01:04:49.579 Would that potentially push NATO for action? 01:04:49.579 --> 01:04:53.539 And another very quick question for experts. 01:04:53.539 --> 01:05:01.480 Is there a legal way that Ukraine can request NATO to close the airspace? 01:05:01.480 --> 01:05:08.940 The whole confrontation with Russia's side, is it even legally possible for a sovereign nation to ask someone else to control its airspace? 01:05:08.940 --> 01:05:14.860 Okay. First question, you know, appetite for refugees. 01:05:14.860 --> 01:05:24.420 People have spoken of, have compared what may be coming, not to the kinds of refugee flows we saw at the end of World War II, 01:05:24.420 --> 01:05:30.500 where there were literally, you know, more than 10 million refugees wandering through Europe. 01:05:30.920 --> 01:05:36.019 People are speaking of up to a fourth of the population of Ukraine fleeing. 01:05:36.019 --> 01:05:39.579 If the war goes forward, that'd be about 10 million people. 01:05:40.619 --> 01:05:47.219 So, you know, Europe would not really be well able to do that. 01:05:47.579 --> 01:05:54.400 I don't know how the politics would work because there is a huge revulsion against Putin. 01:05:54.400 --> 01:06:06.800 But I think, I hate to say this, it's not a compliment to human nature, but I think the European reaction, if the end of their capacity for refugee absorption was reached, 01:06:07.019 --> 01:06:10.980 they would close their frontiers before they would start a war with Russia. 01:06:12.619 --> 01:06:19.880 You know, so again, if I were advising people in Ukraine who were thinking of leaving, I would advise them to leave early. 01:06:19.880 --> 01:06:23.000 They say, by the way, in banking, there are two rules. 01:06:23.140 --> 01:06:28.539 The first rule is don't panic, because if nobody panics, there won't be a run on the bank. 01:06:28.800 --> 01:06:35.240 But the second rule is panic first, because that way you'll get your money out of the bank if there's trouble. 01:06:35.920 --> 01:06:38.860 So panic first is probably good advice. 01:06:38.860 --> 01:06:50.220 On the second question, Ukraine has already asked NATO countries to impose a no-fly zone, and they've refused. 01:06:52.099 --> 01:07:02.440 My understanding is that there could be a request for the UN to implement a no-fly zone, but that would require the Security Council to agree to it, 01:07:02.500 --> 01:07:07.740 which we know they're not going to because of Russia's permanent standing member status. 01:07:07.739 --> 01:07:08.099 Yeah. 01:07:10.159 --> 01:07:15.479 Well, I'm looking at the time here and realizing we could go on for a much longer, but it's 9-14, 01:07:16.199 --> 01:07:22.459 and I do want to make sure that we end at our readjusted closing time here. 01:07:23.119 --> 01:07:31.599 I think the interest that is here and the reality that this is going to extend for who knows how long 01:07:31.599 --> 01:07:39.559 means that perhaps this is something that we do again in the future as events change on the ground and as there's more to talk about. 01:07:40.819 --> 01:07:46.719 I think this exemplifies exactly the kind, Walter, as you were saying, that the most important thing that Christians can do is be informed 01:07:46.719 --> 01:07:50.579 and to educate themselves in terms of these kinds of matters. 01:07:50.579 --> 01:07:59.739 And I think this kind of conversation that we've had tonight is a good example of the kind of work that we want to be able to do as a church and as Christians, both now and going forward. 01:07:59.860 --> 01:08:07.980 So my hope is that we might be able to do more of this in the future and to pick up where we've left off here. 01:08:07.980 --> 01:08:15.179 But with that said, let me give a huge thanks, I think, on everyone's behalf. 01:08:15.740 --> 01:08:29.079 Thanks to Walter for your perspectives and wisdom and knowledge on all of this, and also for our panelists, for Brant and Ryan and Juliana. 01:08:29.079 --> 01:08:33.559 Thank you for joining us with this and adding to this. 01:08:33.619 --> 01:08:39.939 This has been incredibly rich and a real privilege to be able to think together with all of you. 01:08:40.000 --> 01:08:43.680 We're really grateful for you bringing your experience and expertise to bear on this. 01:08:44.460 --> 01:08:46.519 Thank you all for joining us. 01:08:47.000 --> 01:08:52.760 And again, we'll look forward to doing more of these in the future, but really grateful for this time together tonight. 01:08:52.960 --> 01:08:53.460 Thank you, everyone.